Thursday, November 11, 2010

11/11/10 Bay Bridge Breakdown/ How To Make A 'U'

http://tinyurl.com/2gxa476

If the judge in his case makes the right move, it will be 6 months probation + state-funded counseling.

The things in life that can break us down- well, that's one of them. Another would be taking a financial hit so crippling we can't see our way out- not an uncommon occurrence among day traders.

It matters zip how 'strong' someone is (or thinks he is)- the human spirit can be broken.

When you sense you're closing in on that state of mind, I'll tell you what works for me:

(a) Sleep on it. A good night's sleep can work a '180' on your outlook. It may be the last thing you want to do at the time- all the more reason to 'just do it.'

(b) Catch a movie. There's something about getting caught up in someone else's story that transports you out of your funk long enough to make it bearable. It's usually good for at least a '90' degree change in outlook.

(c) Listen to music. Sound works on the brain at a subliminal yet powerful level. Depending on one's response to music, anywhere from 90 to 180.

(d) Take a walk. The exertion alters brain chemistry enough to elevate your mood.

All of the above work as well when trying to sort out a bad trade.

No trades today. I thought hard about taking a position in CSCO, but elected to wait another day or two.

48 comments:

  1. CSCO - Seems to be repeating last Q's action, so it won't?

    I'm not into playing tonsil hockey with complete strangers either..

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  2. Re: Cara 100 Ratings Changes For Thursday/ CSCO price targets newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4944 comments) on Thu, 11/11/2010 - 19:43 #74050 (in reply to #73991)
    I hate to say it, but with analysts lowering targets to the 22-23 range, the odds of seeing CSCO in the 'teens' just got higher (IMO). Price targets are generally meaningless, yet they act as powerful reference points as soon as they're printed.

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  3. I recall at least one Caraista who admitted being close to the breaking point during the Crash. Which means there had to be many more. Unfortunately, it almost has to include at least one of the posters I've missed hearing from since 2008/09.

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  4. Taking bets on direction newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4945 comments) on Thu, 11/11/2010 - 20:08 #74051
    I say we close down three digits on the DJIA Friday. Since I have no skin in the game, you could say it's an empty bet. Just saying.

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  5. Taking bets on direction/ bull trap newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4945 comments) on Thu, 11/11/2010 - 20:11 #74051
    I say we close down three digits on the DJIA Friday. Since I have no skin in the game, you could say it's an empty bet. Just saying.

    Let me refine the take a little by saying the EOD buying was a bull trap.

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  6. Down three - I'm inclined to agree a pullback or at least consolidation is in order but not till next week? It might even begin on a "good news" event...

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  7. OK, I'll buy into 'next week' as well. Definitely on 'good news,' ie unexpected. Either way, I just have no interest in going long right now.

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  8. JNPR - Was on sale today for a short while.

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  9. You know, I'm actually starting to look at NatGas now. Can it really be a one-way ticket south, or does it start to trend up now?

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  10. Since JJS started going down right after I shorted it, I decided to place a buy to cover stop limit just above the recent high, at $80.30/$80.40 for the 50 shares I shorted at $75.30. If the previous high is taken out, then most likely I'll get a chance to re-open my short in the $90's.

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  11. I agree, I have an impression there's a lot of distribution going on. After all, what are the chances the S&P is headed straight for 2500 or the price of crude to over $100?

    I just think all of the upside is done for at least some time so why risk additional capital?

    I'm still attempting to find something that may exhibit inverse correlation tendencies for a while or, deserves shorter term upside potential.

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  12. 2nd_ave, since contango is not an issue now, then I think buying UNG is a great deal now, because I think it still prices in a very pessimistic scenario for the winter (very low heating demand, etc.). If we get a single spell of cold weather for a couple of weeks, then gas will likely make a temporary spike up and you'll be able to exit the trade with profit.

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  13. Well, the floor traders are saying to stay away from NG and stick with crude b/c crude consumption has been rapidly rising of late.

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  14. CSCO - I wonder how much puts were during yesterday's session? I bet you could've seen the selloff coming if the puts were selling for peanuts.

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  15. CP: where do you get your floor trader opinions from?

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  16. David- The drop in the price of sugar may be a one day event. ICE increased the margin requirement today by 65%. This certainly could account for the action in the future price much like the other day when the CME did the same but to a much lesser degree with silver.

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  17. I think a major gut-check shakedown is in order for longs. They've had it too easy for too long.

    Shorts? If they weren't stopped out or flat out DOA at SPX 1225, then they're the ones with the go-down-with-the-ship mentality, which doesn't help me when gaming direction.

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  18. Floor trader - They interviewed a floor trader on NBR tonight, and if I recall he's the same one who a couple of years ago said oil over $100 was unsustainable as the price was heading to $150.

    Turns out he was right, I'm not so sure he's right this time but the argument makes sense if you loosely factor in emerging market growth?

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  19. 2nd, longs have simply been on the side of the FED, the most logical place to be. Had it too easy? Well where would you be if not only had you missed the rally but you also took a hit from holding a large stash of cash?

    U$D is off 14% from it's peek this year, and off 5% from the 200SMA.

    Why is holding cash better than a few good equities when they were sold off to ridiculous lows and Ben wants a lower dollar to create export opportunities?

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  20. Floor trader - Come to think of it, this was the same floor trader who said $10 oil was underpriced, so that makes him right on both accounts.

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  21. CP- I still think we go higher. But not until longs get a major test of conviction.

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  22. 2nd- If my SSO was not in the IRA I would have aken the gain at the close.

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  23. I swear, I just don't understand why folks can't comprehend why currency exchange rates and trade imbalances create opportunity...

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  24. But wait- who am I talking to here? Iceman. The only guy I know who would have held GMO thru at least two serious shakedowns, to exit at his LIMIT price of 5.75?

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  25. Does anyone have a chronological account of when the cruise ship was disabled and when the mystery rocket was fired?

    Which occurred first?

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  26. 2nd - I really regret not adding the two times I was sitting at my basis price but I just couldn't see taking more risk unless I could collect at least an additional 10~15%.

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  27. OK, the above comment refers to BOTH CP and Mark.

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  28. Shhhh...The kids might be listening. Let them figure it out themselves.

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  29. Looks like the ES is going to test it's morning LOD.

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  30. Now, if we sell off and

    1) GMO takes a dive back to low $3 range on no discouraging news (ie: water permits aren't denied) I'll buy my original shares back.
    2) GMO receives water permits, I'll try to but immediately on the news if price is still under $10
    3) If discouraging water permit news emerges and price is still over $3 I'll sell immediately.

    There still could be several water permit iterations but Hanlong has expedited the $40M for a reason and I suspect it's going to be used to buy off the remaining farmers.

    So please give me a nice hard selloff ASAP!

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  31. CP- who reminds me of Jeremy Renner in 'The Hurt Locker.'

    Mark- who responds to requests for instantaneous analysis by posting photos of Kendra.

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  32. OK, now that I've managed to insult just about everyone, I'm hitting the sack.

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  33. ATNI - I don't know about this one, I suppose it could go much lower but I'm confident it will eventually return 20% or better than my entry. It might take 4 months or more, so it's going to test my patience the same way GMO did.

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  34. You'll have to help me out, who was insulted? Some things just go over my head when I'm letting it all hang out...

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  35. French TV add for condoms...

    http://attitude.adforum.com/top5/2010/01/27/aides-graffiti-tbwaparis/

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  36. CP- 2nd was just having fun. He knows he didn't insult anyone :)

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  37. I just posted that add on CC. International relations.

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  38. I seek inspiring conversation when I'm not sleeping. ;)

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  39. EBAY - There could be some more upside in store but it sure looks like it's close to being a good short about here.

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  40. "QE isn't working" - Well, the U$D has fallen quite a bit from the 200SMA and the market has rallied to new highs, so wouldn't it make sense that T's may be a little underpriced at this point and ripe for some buying?

    Once rates begin falling, then the argument about QE not working as Ben portrayed loses some credibility.

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  41. CP- Your last comment has a lot of merit. But that's coming from me...

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  42. Could you all please keep it quiet? I'm taking a sleep apnea test tonight...That's what I get for going to a new doctor...:)

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  43. apnea test - Cram a couple of pots of coffee, just to make sure you pass then tell the doc "it's" hard getting up in the morning, if ya know what I mean... ;)

    You've been experiencing trouble sleeping? Can't say I have that problem, my issue is not making myself go to bed earlier so when I finally do, I'm out like a light and sleep too long.

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  44. Looks like 2nd_ave's intuition is right on the money once again: the Dow futures are down triple digits now.

    I really hope we get a nasty sell-off for a week, so that I could cash in my November put options on FCX and IWM at a great price (rather than having them go to 0).

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